STM, without
the hand-waving.

Start here, because it changes how you should read the rest of this page. The market below is real software: pools, payouts, the rake and every balance are computed and stored server-side, and they behave exactly as described in sections 03 through 06.

What is not real is the money. Every balance here is denominated in credits, play-money scrip that exists only in this application's database. Nothing you do here moves value on any blockchain: credits cannot be withdrawn, and they cannot be swapped for anything.

There is no STM token, and no contract address to look up. If you find one being sold under this name, it is not ours. Should a token ever ship, it will be announced here first and it still will not be these credits — credits are rows in a database, not something that can be swapped, bridged or held in a wallet. There is no deployed Solana program behind the market either: settlement happens on this server.

Social Trading Markets is a market on outcomes — mostly on calls, and on one thing about callers. A caller says some coin is about to run; that call becomes a round, and you take a side on whether it works out. Separately, a caller who has verified their account can have a streak round opened on them: a market on whether they hit a set number of their next graded calls. That is the only market whose subject is a person, and it exists only with their consent.

What you never get is a price on a person. There is no per-caller token, no position to hold between rounds, and nothing to buy early and sell to whoever arrives later — so nobody can be pumped, and a caller with a long record cannot be cornered by whoever bought in first. A streak round is a bet that settles and pays out; it is not a stake in someone.

What accumulates instead is a track record: every graded round is public and permanent, and the hit rate on a profile is counted from those rounds rather than entered by anyone.

The accounts listed are real public figures who have not agreed to anything and receive nothing. Their inclusion is a demonstration of the mechanic, not a relationship. Because a streak round requires a verified claim, none of them can be made the subject of one: the consent gate is what keeps a market about a person's competence off a handle whose owner never turned up.

• 

  Builder example

  Aurelius

  @aurelius0121

• 

  Trader example

  Bull.Path

  @bull_path

• 

  Market voice example

  Unipcs

  @theunipcs

A round has three phases. While it is open, anyone can stake credits on BACK (the call works) or FADE (it does not) — by default for 10 minutes. Staking then closes, the round locks, and the coin's price at that moment is recorded as the entry. 60 minutes later it is graded and settled.

The entry price is taken at lock, not when the round opens. If it were taken at open, a coin that ran during the staking window would already be a guaranteed win, and anyone watching could stake on BACK with no risk at all.

The percentage shown on a round is not a prediction anyone made — it is simply where the credits are. If 1,000 credits are backing and 500 are fading, the round reads 66% backed. It moves as people stake, and it is the crowd's position rather than an estimate of the odds.

Winners split the losing pool in proportion to what they staked, and get their own stake back on top. Nothing is fixed in advance: the payout depends entirely on how the two pools ended up, which is what makes the unpopular side worth taking when it is right.

The rake comes out of the losing pool only. That is deliberate, and it is the one rule that protects you: a winner can never receive less than they staked, because their own credits are never touched by the fee.

Of that 5%, 3% goes to the caller whose call the round is on and 2% to the protocol. Worth being precise about the incentive that creates: because the rake is a share of the losing pool, a caller earns most when the crowd is heavily wrong, and earns nothing at all when a round voids. Being right is not what pays them — disagreement is.

Backed

1,000 credits

Faded

500 credits

Rake — 5% of the losing side

25 credits

Paid to winners

1,475 credits

In that example a backer who staked 600 credits receives 885 — their stake back, plus 285 in winnings. Every figure above is produced by the same function that pays people out, and the credits in must equal the credits out: payouts plus rake exactly equals both pools combined, checked on every single settlement.

A call is a hit if the coin reaches 50% above its entry price at any point during the window. Reaching the bar is enough — what happens afterwards does not matter, so a call that runs and then round-trips still counts as having worked.

That requires watching the price, not checking it once at the end. The feed used here reports a current price and no history, so the app samples repeatedly while a round is live and keeps the highest value it has seen. Every sample is stored, so a settled round can show the readings it was graded on.

Peaked +64% above entry

HIT — cleared +50%

Peaked +31% above entry

MISS — short of +50%

The honest limit of this: it is the peak this application observed, not the coin's true high. A spike that happens entirely between two samples is not counted, so the figure can only ever understate a peak — it can never invent one.

A round is voided and every stake refunded in full when it cannot be settled honestly. There are three such cases, and none of them produce winners or losers.

The first is a one-sided round: if nobody took the other side there is no losing pool to distribute, and the "winners" would receive precisely their own credits back. The second is a missing entry price, which happens when the coin could not be priced at lock. The third is a missing peak — if the feed was unavailable for the whole window, there is no evidence either way.

Accounts are listed before their owners arrive, which means rounds can already be running on your calls. Claiming is how you take ownership of that record.

It happens in two steps, because they establish two different things. First you sign a message with your wallet — that is cryptographic, and proves you control the wallet. Second you link a public post from the handle naming that wallet, and a reviewer checks it. A signature cannot prove anything about an X account, so the second step is a human one.

An account can have exactly one verified owner, enforced by the database rather than by convention. A claim that is filed but not yet reviewed is visible only to the wallet that filed it: an unreviewed assertion about who someone is should not be published on their profile.

A streak round is the one market whose subject is a caller rather than a coin. It asks whether they will hit at least N of their next M graded calls, and you either back them to manage it or fade them. Pools, payouts and refunds work exactly as they do for call rounds.

It can only be opened on an account whose owner has verified their claim. That is the whole consent model: a market about how good somebody is at their job should not be able to appear on the profile of someone who has never so much as logged in. The listed accounts who have not claimed cannot be made a subject at all.

Only calls graded after staking closes count toward the target. A caller's existing history is irrelevant to a live streak round — which is what stops a market being opened on a run that has already happened, and why the progress on an open round reads zero until it locks.

The rake is 2%, all of it protocol. The subject receives 0% — unlike a call round, where the caller accrues 3%. Paying someone a cut of a market on their own competence would give them a reason to want the bet decided one way, and the point of a streak round is that only the calls decide it.

The score beside a handle is a read on attention, not a promise about anything. As designed it weighs follower reach, how often the account is quoted by other listed accounts, and how consistently its calls have graded out, recomputed on a rolling thirty-day window.

In the running application it is none of those things yet: it is a fixed number attached to each listed account, and it does not move. It is labelled here rather than quietly presented as live, because a number that looks computed and is not is worse than no number at all.

The hit rate on a profile is a different thing entirely, and it is real: it is counted directly from that account's graded rounds. A caller with nothing graded shows a dash rather than 0%, because a caller nobody has scored has not scored zero.

The feed can be wrong or unavailable. Prices come from a public third-party API with no guarantee behind it. The app prices from the deepest pool it can see, and refuses to guess when it cannot read a price at all — the round voids and everyone is refunded rather than being graded on a number nobody could verify.

Rounds are opened by an operator. Someone has to say that a given caller called a given coin, and that is a human step. A call can be missed, entered late, or entered for the wrong coin. The exact mint of every round is shown, so the coin being graded is never ambiguous even when the handle is.

A thin round is a bad bet. With little on the other side there is almost nothing to win, and the percentage moves violently on small stakes. It is the real state of the pool rather than a prediction, and early on it says very little.

The peak is observed, not absolute. Grading uses the highest price this application sampled during the window, which can only ever understate a coin's true high.